Our water requirements
( 7. )
Our normal water requirements
This is fully discussed in the "Requirements"
button. It is slightly in excess of 1000ML per day. The SEQ Regional Plan
part B uses the expression " business as usual " term which to
my understanding means - without restrictions of any kind and before the
"Emergency measures" as described and Legislated in the Water
Commission's web-site. The Requirements are measured on that basis.
In the first instance, the Population serviced by the
Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams were 
determined.
Examination of the SEQ Plan part B indicated the percentages of the areas
described as SEQ. The SEQWater web site describes the areas covered by the
3 Dams which includes the North Pine. The calculation comes to 85% of the
2.8 million population. The North Pine population is excised on the basis
of Dam capacities. The result is a Population serviced by the two Dams at
2,113,983 or around 2.1 million.
The second requirement was to adopt the SEQ RP Part B
method being "per person including Commercial and Industrial at 450
litres per day each". There are adjustments made by me to cater for
the Commercial and Industrial from the main Dams. The revision is 474
litres per person per day.
You will see that these calculations are within
tolerance of the annual totals of the depleted Dams together with rainfall
in both "low" and "high" yield years.
Conclusion
The final calculation is that our requirements as
described is 366,044ML per year which calculates to 1,003ML per day.
2. Interim measures taken
( 8. ) Shortfall ( if any) in providing for
Requirements and comparison to action taken.
Calculation of shortfall of our normal requirements
without water restrictions
This calculation is relatively straight forward.
The Dam levels shown in SEQWater Annual Reports at 30th
June each year are listed and show a shortfall of 
68.1
% to 30th June 2006.
The Capacity of the Wivenhoe and Somerset are known and
over a period of 6 years with 365 days per year the shortfall is 480ML per
day.
After adjustments for water restrictions in 2006 and
minor rainfall adjustments, the "business as usual" requirement
from these two Dams is short by 522ML per day.
Rainfall provided 481ML per day to make up
the overall requirement of 1003ML per day. This is calculated in
"Requirements" button.
Water Grid
The title of these projects is listed on the Water
Commission's web-site as " Water Supply Emergency Projects"
together with the date of the updated assessment.
The projects are subject to change and you should review
the web-site for updated
information.
The web address is qwc.qld.gov.au/Water.
As a starting point I have attached my assessment of new
water as at April 2007. It shows a new water total of 372ML
per day.
Shortfall ( if any) to achieve normal status
The above requirements show a shortfall of 522ML per
day. The water grid at present summarises as 372ML per day. The balance
to be met is 150ML per day. It excludes the Traveston Dam.
With the Wyaralong Dam and other relatively minor
projects, it appears that the Grid System will provide a stable water
supply when coupled with normal and average Summer rainfall without
uncommon events. It will not cater for increasing population which is the
subject of the next section including the proposed Traveston Dam.
Final assessment of "what happened in our dams" and
"interim measures".
( 9. ) The totality of these observations
condenses to answer the puzzle of why our dam levels rose from zero
in 1986 to full in 1989/1992/1999/2000/2001 and dropped like a
stone for the last 6 years with year 2004 being the exception.
The
events of 1988/1989/1992/1999/2000/2001 in the Wivenhoe/Somerset combined
to put from view the increasing needs of our growing population. The years
2001 to 2006 saw close to average Summer rainfall. What we see in the Dams
is absence of these rare uncommon rainfall events and the emergence of the
real requirements of our population measured against average rainfall. Our
planners were aware that they could not rely on uncommon events and
had the Wolfdene Dam well in hand. The cancellation of that Dam at an
advanced stage has created the Legislated Emergency measures of the water
grid, now in train, scrambling to make up the shortfall. It has caused
widespread pain and considerable expense to the Population and this is
especially so in the Mary Valley. It is ongoing.
The Dam depletion was and is presented as the
"worst drought in 100 years" when the rainfall of the high
inflow Summer months was almost average. Climate Change is occasionally
thrown in for good measure. It was neither. The evidence points to the
central kernel of today's problem being lack of understanding of uncommon
events.
The Wolfdene Dam cancellation was the first major
causality and it is now laid out for you to make a judgement. It
left our recent past Premier and the current Premier scrambling with
second class options such as recycled effluent and costly desalination. He
had little room to move and advisors with the 'worst drought' contention
deeply entrenched. We will see in Phase 3 that lack of understanding is
about to force a similar situation.
The forward planning of the South East Queensland
Regional Water Supply and copious other reports, particularly of the Mary
valley Traveston Dam proposal, are based on a supply allocation from these
Dams which includes "uncommon events". From their qualification
of their assessments they believe that the current situation is a
"drought". It is not. It is the absence of uncommon events and
an annually occurs when "uncommon events" do not appear.
They are 15 to 30 years apart and this will severely distort forward
projections.
Those who still prefer to use the term "worst
drought in 100 years" may find the "worst
drought"
button useful. It is much more serious than that. A drought eventually
breaks but the underlying problem is not a drought and will take some
years to fix.
3. Long term solution
Having arrived at this point it was inescapable that
further supplies of water were needed. The Traveston Dam was the remaining
item in the Emergency Legislation.
It was therefore necessary to examine the Mary Valley
where the Traveston Crossing Dam was to be located. To this end I
extracted all the rainfall data of all the Rainfall Stations in the
Catchment area. These are Bureau of Meteorology records.
First of all these records showed that the Summer
rainfall of December to March received over 50 percent of the total
rainfall. Exactly the same as the Somerset and Wivenhoe catchments.
Second, and most importantly, the rainfall had almost
the same rainfall pattern of timing and intensity as the Somerset
and Wivenhoe catchments. The Mary Valley has slightly higher rainfall in
uncommon events. This is not surprising when one considers that they are
adjacent catchments.
This meant that inevitably the Mary Valley would operate
in exactly the same way as the Somerset/Wivenhoe System with the same
result that we are currently witnessing.
The "Save the Mary Valley" people have voiced
strong opposition to the Dam pointing out among other things evaporation
and seepage difficulties.
In spite of these objections, our Leaders apparently
felt that they no alternative but to proceed. I too was of the same
opinion until I read Mr Ron McMah's submission to the Senate Enquiry.
His proposal is listed in this web site. In essence he
proposes that the Borumba Dam be expanded to 2,000,000ML. The water of the
Mary Valley and the surplus water of the Wivenhoe/Somerset System be
pumped to and from this Dam as required. In a public meeting in the Mary
Valley, he was given an "Iron clad guarantee" by the then
Deputy Premier Hon Ms A. Bligh that this would be adopted if it stood up.
I recognized that this was the opportunity to harness
the surplus water of the uncommon events of the Wivenhoe/Somerset
system without any further requirement of the Mary Valley. I contacted Mr
McMah and traversed the area with him while he again outlined his
proposal. The Dam was 12 kilometres from Jimna and from there it was
gravity feed into the Wivenhoe/Somerset System.
The feasibility is now explored.
Mary Valley
The "Mary
Val Rain Pattern" button gives a comprehensive view of how
the proposed Dam would operate. Because the rainfall pattern of timing and
intensity are comparable to all our other catchments, then it will
ultimately operate in the same way as we are currently experiencing.
Traveston Crossing Dam
The "Traveston
Cross" button sets out the relevant items of interest. It
does not deeply examine the pros and cons of the merits of the Dam. The
"Save the Mary Valley" people have pointed to the evaporation
and seepage as well as other aspects that and can well defend their
position.
North Pine Dam
The "North
Pine Dam" button supports the establishment of the yield from
the Borumba Dam. The Terms of Reference supplied to Mr McMah indicated a
yield of 51,000ML yearly. The North Pine catchment rainfall is almost the
same as the Borumba Dam but a smaller catchment. When adjusted, a yield of
75,000ML results. Further, The North Pine Dam does not have flood
mitigation and would add substantially to the 75,000ML . To argue that the
yield is 51,000ML is to argue against the Professionals at SEQWater who
maintain that their 47.450ML from the North Pine Dam is maintained
throughout all drought conditions.
The combination of the Surpluses in the
Wivenhoe/Somerset system plus the Borumba surpluses match the Traveston
proposal
The yield to match all three stages of the Traveston Dam
is 150,000ML annually. It does not match this figure and The Harnessing
of the uncommon events in the Wivenhoe/Somerset follow after further
examination of the Borumba Dam. Hydrology by the Department of Natural
Resources and Water in December 2005 indicated that this volume was in
excess of 80,000ML on an annualised basis. The total of the Borumba and
the Wivenhoe/Somerset contributions exceed the the whole of the Traveston
three stages.
The storage implications of the "Grid"
system
The Government has done well with the grid system. It
will mostly take the place of the absence of "uncommon events".
In combination with average Summer rain our needs are taken care of.
However, after the first uncommon event " refills the Dams, there is
no storage space for those that follows. The draw down will be minimal
with the operation of the Grid and Summer Rains. The use of the Borumba as
a storage dam will add an additional 125,000ML on an annualised basis. The
Traveston will lock up the Borumba Dam to a yield of 40,000ML and that
yield is part of the total of 150,000ML from the Traveston proposal.
Hydrology of the Mary Valley in flood
The "Hydrology"
button was established to ascertain the efficiency of the Borumba Dam
catchment. On the basis of the information provided, it lives up to its
name as the most efficient catchment in Dam systems under review.
The Borumba Dam
The "Borumba
Dam" button shows conclusive evidence of official releases
from this Dam and puts to rest any argument. It also shows in detail Mr
McMah's submission to the Senate Enquiry. Some aspects of the Dam are
included showing the natural amphitheatre characteristics of the Dam and
the terrain of its catchment.
Calculations and Calculation/Base
These were my early calculations to assess the
feasibility of my proposal. Since then official statistics and Engineers
reports show that the 80,000ML retrieved from the Wivenhoe/Somerset and
returned in lean times has been confirmed.
The Borumba Calculations are based on official
information of surpluses over the dam wall for the entire period of the
Dam's operations.
These calculations remain in the website as they provide
interesting supporting information that gives the reader a wider
grounding.
"Calculations/Base"
button
In this section we extract uncommon events from normal
average rainfall. We then proceed to examine the current population
requirement against normal rainfall and the uncommon events that occurred,
and when they occurred, in the last 108 years. This is done on the basis
that all three Dams were operational for the whole of the period and the
current population was in place all of that time. The requirement of the
proposed Traveston Dam was also taken into account for the whole period.
The previous 60 years at the end of the Nineteenth
Century requires no calculations as it was pitted with major events.
The use of the expanded Borumba Dam had to survive the
first 70 years of the Twentieth Century to be considered. This period was
quite short on major events. It passed it easily with the full Dams in
1898 and also passed with the Dams at 14 percent in 1898, being a little
lower than current levels.
There is no guarantee that the Traveston proposal would
have survived this period.
Finally there is a flow schedule that covers from 2007
onwards over the period of all stages of the Traveston Dam.
The "Calculations/Base"
button contains the method of preparation of the water flow schedules. It
also contains copious supporting data that ensures a reasonably accurate
estimate of timing and volume of the uncommon events. It also covers all
aspects of items that make up the calculation.
Engineering examination
Examination of the GHD engineering desk top report on
"The augmentation of the Wivenhoe Dam" confirmed by DNR & W
hydrology, the surplus water available from events that usually go over
the spillways was 80,000ML on an annualised basis. It cross checks all the
previous information.
The same report permits me to draw on extended time
for the transfer of water.
Both matters are fully dealt with in my "EIS
alternative proposal to the Traveston Crossing Dam" lodged in
December 2007.
THE SOLUTION
The Solution is contained from page
9 onwards in the
Final solution and EIS tab.
All of the previous information points to the fact
that the expanded Borumba Dam to 2,000,000ML is the superior decision. It
will supply the needs of the people of South East Queensland for many
decades and most probably beyond.
END OF THE THREE PHASES OF THIS WEB-SITE
General Comments
The most fatal flaw in the decision making
process was the lack of understanding of uncommon events. It is almost
entirely responsible for the situation in which we now find ourselves. In
retrospect it has created errors of judgement that are most difficult to
rectify. As an example I have added a "Wolfdene
dam" button for further observation.
I find it difficult to understand how in a few minutes
with two clicks on a computer a statistical aberration can be exposed and
not examined. See " Initial research" and "Initial
statistics"
buttons. Even today, our leaders include the drought in all their
pronouncements. They were followed by our opinion leaders of Business and
those responsible for our Social structure. Some are now of a
different view.
The "Climate change centre for excellence" is
said to be made up of many scientists. Its 
report of March 2007 was headed " The south east Queensland
drought to 2007" while dealing with our catchment rainfall. My
understanding of men of science is that that they push back the boundaries
of mankind by Search and Research always with an open mind. The heading
itself is puzzling. It seems to indicate that they have started with the
answer rather than " In the context of rainfall, what happened in the
catchments to raise our Dams from scratch to overflow in 15 short years
and then drop 80% in the last six". They then proceeded to
compare the last 6 years with the "Federation drought".
I have added a "Federation
Drought" button for those readers who wish to draw their 
own conclusion. The Bureau of Meteorology actual monthly rainfall for both
periods are present
and it clears up any misconceptions. The comparison has been useful
in determining that a severe drought in the Catchments did not exist in
the years 2001-2006.
Climate change and Rainfall patterns
Rainfall patterns
The then Deputy Premier had this to say in her joint
press release of the 28th January 2007.
" Given the current uncertainty about the likely impact of Climate
Change on rainfall patterns in SEQ over the coming years, it is only
prudent to assume at this stage that lower than usual rainfall could
eventuate."
The matters about to be raised are the collective
Rainfall for both Summer and non-Summer rainfall. The deficiency shown in
the graphs for years 2001 to 2006 relate to the non-summer months. Bear in
mind that the deficiency only exists in the non productive non summer
months.
The
expected overall rainfall average in the Wivenhoe is listed
in SEQWater "Dam statistics" as 940mm. The long term average of the Bureau of Meteorology
rainfall stations which is measured against their entire life is
collectively 842mm. The average of the 30 years 1961 to 1990
against which the Bureau measures averages was 872mm. That 30 years
included the 1974 flood and a look back into the previous 70 years shows
little uncommon event activity in comparison. This places the Wivenhoe
permanently in "below average" category. For confirmation see
"Initial
Statistics" button.
The same applies to the Somerset. The SEQwater
listed average is 1230mm, the 
Bureau's
long term average is 1100mm and the 30 year average is 1157mm.
This places the expected rainfall permanently in the
"below average" category. I have sought confirmation of
these figures from SEQWater but my correspondence has not been answered.
It is not surprising as they are busy people who must deal with a myriad
of opinion leaders.
Climate Change
Having all the past records for over 100 years, we are
in an ideal position to judge any effect of climate change. The "Climate
Change" button is added to collect various matters of
interest. I believe that an assessment by yourself will leave you in no
doubt as to the position based on "hard data". Climate Change is
leaving the ephemeral regions and moving into the area of "hard
data" for clinical observation.
The
most interesting observation in the climate change area is the extremely
high uncommon events of the last 60 years of the Nineteenth Century
followed by the first 70 years of the Twentieth century with very little
uncommon event activity. It resumed in 1974.
It is obviously Nature at work. It cares little for the
passage of time.
Final word
In view of the foregoing I realised that initially I
held a different view to 2.8 million people. There are now many thoughtful
people who realise that matters are not what they seem to be at the Dams.
This gives me added responsibility to be accurate with any information in
my possession and fair in its presentation. In this regard I appreciate
the assistance of a few close friends whose opinions I value. They
provided constructive criticism.
I am not a member of any political party nor am I
associated with any members of those parties. I have not been engaged by
anyone to produce this report. The use of the "drought" in the
catchments has been consistently applied by all sections of the Community
over a long period. I felt an obligation to present this view and chose
this web-site because of the base complexity of the problem. It requires
time and thought and cannot be conveyed by a few minutes face to face or a
quick e-mail. My only conflict of interest is that I hold a modest number
of Nylex Limited shares who, among other things, manufacture water tanks.
I am an optimist. I avoid the bearers of doom and gloom.
Once the facts of a problem are known, someone puts his or her hand up
and, with the full support of the people, rectifies the situation. Mr
McMah has one of his hands up and I believe that this information may
raise his other hand. Once he is understood, it is my estimation that our
current Leader has the capacity to follow it through. It is a question as
to whether she has the will or will take the current options.
END OF SUMMARY
SURROUNDING MATTERS, NOT PREVIOUSLY
FULLY DISCUSSED, THAT COMBINED TO DECEIVE THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH EAST
QUEENSLAND
STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS
The
first aberration was observed by me last August 2006 while
examining the rainfall maps on the Bureau of Meteorology web-site. The
Decile map was recording "lowest on record" and the percentage
map for the same three year period and same rainfall was showing 80%. A
Bureau of Meteorology Climatologist confirmed by e-mail that close to 80%
of the long term average rainfall had occurred in the catchment and it was
the lowest on record. I retrieved all the records from recording stations
within the catchments and confirmed this percentage for the last 6 years
to 2006. It also gave me the same data that, all who comment on the dam,
are reading.
The records go back to the 1880's. A sample of these records is attached.
They are available to the general public. A more detailed account of how
to identify the recording Stations in the Dam catchments and retrieve
these records is provided in the "Find BOM
Info" button. The data is in the form of Excel spreadsheet and makes it
convenient to analyse data from all angles.
The "close to 80 per cent" was confirmed by
the newly created Qld Government "Climate Change Centre for
excellence" at 76.2 per cent for the last 6 years. This
does not fit the Bureau of Meteorology definition of a drought being
"acute shortage of water" in the context of rainfall. The
Centre's report is discussed under the "Federation
drought" button
This aberration was brought about by the stability
of District 40 in which the catchments reside.( BOM information twice
sought). The "Climate
change" button also provides further evidence of stability
over long periods.
The
second aberration is related to Summer and Non-Summer months.
The Dam Managers have publicly drawn our attention to this occurrence.
Later you will see that in both the Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams, the Summer
4 months December to March receive 50% or more of the annual
rainfall. The remaining 8 months, April to November, receive the
balance. These non-summer months, being spread over 8 months, are "low
to nil" impact and have difficulty in making the creeks flow.
This is particularly so in the Wivenhoe. More on this aspect in "Summer
V Non Sum" button.
Understanding the much produced decile map
As
explained, a decile map grades the rainfall in units from 1 to 10 with 1
the lowest. The rainfall may not be the lowest but it is in that category.
Having the Bureau of Meteorology source data of every Rainfall Station in
the dams from as far back past the 1893 flood, leaves me in an ideal
position to examine, among other things, the decile compilation from 1899
to 2006. The physical numbers and the graph are attached. They relate to
Wivenhoe Dam. It is similar story in the Somerset Dam.
You
will observe that the 6 years to 2006 were the lowest on record but in
very good company with the lowest 7 sections of 6 years. Apart from the
section including the 1974 flood, all 6 year sections confirm the Bureau
of Meteorology observation that District 40 in which the catchment reside
is a stable rainfall area.
SUPPORTING EVIDENCE NOT
PREVIOUSLY DEALT WITH
Statistical clarity
The Bureau of Meteorology compares rainfall against the average
of 30 years 1961 to 1990. You will see in the "Initial
Stats" button that I have used Rainfall Stations that have
been in operation before 1961 and still in continuous operation. I have
also examined the rainfall Stations not used for any statistical
aberrations. This ensures that I am comparing like with like.
Having then produced the information, a review of the
Stations total results over the period from 1961 to 2006 showed
that all the rainfall stations in the Dams achieved the same results
within reasonable limits. There was one exception, Mt Mee, which I will
discuss later.
The 6 year comparison starts at 1964 in order to
compare 6 year totals as 6 does not divide into 46 years
My overall comparison of Summer months( "Summer
V Non Sum" button) rainfall of the 4 months December to March
compared to the remaining 8 non Summer months showed the same result as
the period 1964 to 2006. This overall comparison reached back into the
1880's. The 50 percent split has been maintained throughout the last 100
years.
Mt Mee Rainfall Station requires some consideration.
The Somerset dam analysis shows the total rainfall from this Station to be
a little over 50 percent more rainfall than the other four stations in the
Dam selected. I confirmed with the Bureau of Meteorology Hydrology
Department that this Station was located on the border of the Somerset and
North Pine Dams and was precisely on top of the range which divides the
two Dams. The Hydrology Department further added that because the North
Pine Dam was on the Eastern side and the Somerset on the Western side, the
rainfall indicated by the Station would be significantly downgraded in the
Somerset dam.
Comparisons of rainfall back to 1909 at the commencement
of the Mt Mee Stations would remain intact however comparisons between
Somerset and Wivenhoe are slightly affected and adjusted where necessary.
The adjustment adopted is to return the Station to the level of the other
four stations used. It also had a minor effect in the micro situation of
the last 6 years and has been shown adjusted and not adjusted.
SEQWater public announcement Courier Mail 10th
February 2007.
The operations manager for the Dams has been most
helpful with his public
announcements
and is to be commended. Of special importance was the article appearing in
the Courier Mail 10th February 2007. The official dam level
graph was provided but not published. I have added relevant data
for ease of viewing.
He made several important points enabling us to gauge
the situation in the Dams : -
(1.) He confirmed that the Summer months
December to March were the months that received the most rainfall and
generated inflow into the dams.
(2.) He confirmed that there had been only
four main rainfall events in the last 15-16 years. ( actually five )
(3.) He confirmed that only two rainfall
periods generated major inflows that filled the dams. He nominated the
four months to March 1992 and the four months to March 1999. ( April
1988 and April 1989 together filled the dams to overflow ).
(4.) He nominated Esk, Kilcoy and Crows Nest
as specific rainfall stations in the dams and gave the mm for the four
summer months.
(5.) He confirmed that the dam levels in
November 1995 were 44.7 per cent. ( Official dam level graph since
obtained and shown in this section )
(6.) His opinion based on knowledge was that
you do need large uncommon events to fill large dams.
Point 1. Having retrieved all the data
from rainfall stations in the dams, I was in an excellent position to
review this statement. The data goes back to past 1893 in some cases. The
Summer months December to March received 50% or more of the annual
rainfall and the balance received by the 8 non-summer months. It was the
case in both the Somerset and Wivenhoe Dams. ("Summer
V Non Sum) button.
Point 2. There are four main rainfall events in
the last 15-16 years when viewing my Summer rains in graph form. I have a
slight disagreement with the exclusion of year 2004. To the graph we add
the high rainfall non-summer months of April 1988 and April 1989 which
then make up the four events. A partial event in May 1996 also assisted
and in my view is the fifth event.
Point 3. Again the rainfall chart of the Summer
months shows that the dams received High inflows in the 1992 and 1999
years that rivalled the 1974 flood. As they were largely full in the first
place, a considerable amount of water went over the spillway into Moreton
Bay. The official graph above, shows water over the spillway in 1989/2000
and after the topup in February 2001.
Point 4. Having nominated specific rainfall
stations, I have enclosed a summary of these Stations and the actual data
for the lives of the Stations so that you can examine the frequency of
these rainfalls. It also confirmed that the rainfall statistics used are
the Bureau of Meteorology data. I am reading the same data. " Initial
Statistics button.
Point 5. Recently I received an official
chart of the dam levels in the Wivenhoe Dam. It was provided by the same
Lady who wrote the article we are reviewing. It was provided to the
Courier Mail and not published. Viewing of the chart hardly
requires comment as to what happened in our dam system. It is obvious to
all.
Point 6. This largely confirms this exercise. The
rainfall chart of the Summer months particularly in the Somerset show they
are around 25 years apart and we received two in 8 years 1992 to 1999
accompanied by two lesser events. If you follow the law of averages then
it will tell you that it will another 20 years from 1999 before another
such event occurs.
END OF WEB-SITE. Thank you for you patience.
