Rainfall deficiency
AN OBSERVATION OF THE CONFLUENCE OF STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS, DAM RATIOS, TIMING AND UNCOMMON RAINFALL EVENTS THAT COMBINED TO HAVE OUR LEADERS DRAW INCORRECT CONCLUSIONS. THEIR INFLUENCE ON ACTIONS TAKEN.

Author : J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant : Aug 2006 to November 2013    

The principal thrust of this website is
FLOOD PROOFING BRISBANE from damaging floods to the point of extinction. MITIGATING flooding in Ipswich and Gympie. Putting REAL MEANING into "Drought proofing SEQ" and ensuring our water supplies by natural means well into the future

This is my review based on official statistics and documents. It is done in conjunction with Ron McMah, grazier of Imbil and Trevor Herse, retired of the Gold Coast

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May 2009 : There is no change to this section since August 2007.

An examination of this email from a Climatologist with BOM e mail 25 08 06 Page 1.jpg (126163 bytes)the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne was the first indication that the Catchments had received close to 80 per cent of the 30 year Long Term average 1961 to 1990. Of further particular interest is that the "mean" measurement of rainfall was used.

This was followed up by comparison of the six years 2001 to 2006 and contained in the "Decision makers" button.

So that there is no confusion between the terms BOM Mean Median.jpg (175761 bytes)"mean" and "median", I have attached the definitions supplied by the Bureau of Meteorology web-site.

The "mean", being the term used by the Bureau in the email, is adopted particularly in the light of the second paragraph of "median".

It also advises that over a long period of time they will be close and the use of either is acceptable.

The Bureau's 1975 handbook edition of Queensland Climatic averages also advises that "the median for the year usually differs from the sum of the monthly medians because it is obtained from all of the available yearly values and not by a summation of the monthly median values." Cross check is therefore difficult.

The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence's QCCCE page 1.jpg (68511 bytes)report of March 2007 uses the termQCCCE page 2.jpg (159428 bytes) "average or median". Of particular interest in this section is their conclusion that the catchments, for the 70 months March 2001 to January 2007, received 76.2 per cent of average rainfall. In view of the BOM definitions, comparison with the "mean" should be "Close". This QCCCE report also compares the deficiency of rainfall with the "Federation drought". This is examined in the "Federation drought" button.

The Bureau of Meteorology E Mail confirms that the rainfall for the three years to July 2006 was close to 80 per cent. My initial and updated review of Rainfall Stations in the dams confirms both the QCCCE report and the BOM E Mail.

The purpose of this section is to show that the rainfall not received, 23.8 per cent (100 - 76.2), occurred mainly in the eight non-summer months. The eight non-summer months rarely provide inflow into the Dams.

Bearing in mind that the long term average against which the Bureau compares rainfall is 1961 to 1990, I have selected this period as the starting point of comparisons. A further reminder is that the Rainfall Stations selected have been in continuous operation since 1961 and most for many years prior to that year.

The information starts at 1965 as the charts we are about to examine are also used as part of the "decile" charts used to observe six year periods. See "Decision makers" button. 1961 does not easily fit into division by 6 being the six years 2001 to 2006 against which the comparisons are made. 

There is clearly a statistical aberration in the six years 1971 to 1976 being the 1974 flood period. I have shown the results with that period excluded for both the Wivenhoe and Somerset Dam charts. 

Somerset Dam

The summary at the bottom right hand corner shows Percent Som with 40145.jpg (286606 bytes) that the rainfall received by this dam for the period 2001 to 2006 to be 76.2 per cent. It is in agreement with the above. I now prefer to eliminate the 1971-76 aberration and review the outcome of Summer V Non-Summer. The four Summer months received 91.3 percent of average and the eight non-summer 68.8 percent of average. 

The outcome is almost average Summer rainfall in the Somerset Dam for the six years 2001 to 2006.

Wivenhoe Dam

The summary at the bottom right hand corner shows Percent Wivenhoe.jpg (254083 bytes) that the rainfall received by this dam for the period 2001 to 2006 to be 84.6 per cent. It is 8.4 percent above the 76.2 % of the QCCCE. I now prefer to eliminate the 1971-76 aberration and review the outcome of Summer V Non-Summer. The four Summer months received 99.7 percent of average and the eight non-summer 77.2 percent of average.

The outcome is average Summer rainfall in the Wivenhoe Dam for the six years 2001 to 2006.

The CONCLUSION

The current drought applicable to surrounding regions does not apply to the four high inflow Summer months that provide inflow into the Dams.