AN OBSERVATION OF THE CONFLUENCE OF STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS, DAM RATIOS, TIMING AND UNCOMMON RAINFALL EVENTS THAT COMBINED TO PRESENT OUR DAMS AS VICTIMS OF A SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT THE CASE. THEIR INFLUENCE ON CONCLUSIONS REACHED AND ACTIONS TAKEN.

Author : J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant
August 2006 to April 2008

  UPDATES : November 2008. This website is maintained as it was in April 2008. Currently the Dam levels are around 40% and, with the addition of the Grid, should be maintained around that percentage. The next "uncommon meteorological event" will fill the Dams to overflow. This event will show that that the actions of "uncommon events", being Monsoons, Cyclones or Large Rainfall Depressions that generally cover all of SEQ, is again misunderstood and that they are the major source of our water supply. Our current storage capacity is insufficient to deal with them. The historical fundamental flaw of the cancellation of the Wolfdene Dam (1989) is being repeated in reverse at Traveston Crossing in the Mary Valley. See "Home" page for further updates.

INITIAL LOOK AT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY MAPS 

The Bureau of Meteorology is the chief recorder of Rainfall and other items related to weather. In August 2006, their rainfall maps were my first observation point. A click on the "drought" heading for the last three years to July 2006 showed a decile map which grades rainfall from 1 to 10 and recorded that it was in the category of "lowest on record" for the catchments of the Dams. 

I then clicked on the "percentage" map for the same period and rainfall to observe how much rain fell. It showed that the catchments had received 80 % of the long term average 1961 to 1990.

The diversity of the answers for exactly the same rainfall required explanation. You will see from the attached e-mail from a Climatologist from the Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre that the two results are compatible. The Dam catchments had received close to 80% of the long term average and that 80% was the "lowest on record". They later confirmed that District 40 in which the catchments reside is a stable rainfall area and permits this Statistical aberration.