Initial Statistics
AN OBSERVATION OF THE CONFLUENCE OF STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS, DAM RATIOS, TIMING AND UNCOMMON RAINFALL EVENTS THAT COMBINED TO HAVE OUR LEADERS DRAW INCORRECT CONCLUSIONS. THEIR INFLUENCE ON ACTIONS TAKEN.

Author : J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant : Aug 2006 to November 2013    

The principal thrust of this website is
FLOOD PROOFING BRISBANE from damaging floods to the point of extinction. MITIGATING flooding in Ipswich and Gympie. Putting REAL MEANING into "Drought proofing SEQ" and ensuring our water supplies by natural means well into the future

This is my review based on official statistics and documents. It is done in conjunction with Ron McMah, grazier of Imbil and Trevor Herse, retired of the Gold Coast

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May 2009 : No change since August 2007. 


The basis of this web site is Bureau of Meteorology rainfall Stations in the catchments and the Web-site of SEQWater, the Dam managers. Their Annual Reports reveal that they are a truly professional body. Their public announcements have been helpful and they are to be commended.

BOM Sample station rainfall.jpg (400725 bytes)This is an example of the data provided by the Bureau. It is obtained through identification of the Rainfall Station numbers and then by request to the data section. A small fee is required. You will observe that the information is in EXCEL spread sheet format which gives easy access to assessing the required information.

 

 

Stations used.jpg (160350 bytes)Stations not used.jpg (216954 bytes)The Bureau of Meteorology measures rainfall against the 30 year average (or mean)  1961 to 1990. To maintain statistical purity, I have used all the rainfall stations that have been in continuous operation from 1961 to 2006. The remaining stations were mostly closed prior to 2006 but have been inspected for possible aberrations.

XL Wivenhoe Annual Rainfall 1961 to 2006.jpg (452226 bytes)XL Somerset Annual Rainfall 1961 to 2006.jpg (365259 bytes)These charts were initially used to confirm the rainfall maps. The Qld. Govt. Climate Change Centre for  excellence has since confirmed the overall percentage as 76.2%. The relationship of the Somerset and Wivenhoe dams is one of the central ingredients of this examination. The Somerset is on the Stanley river and the Wivenhoe on the Brisbane River at the junction of the Brisbane and Stanley Rivers. It backs up to the foot of the Somerset.

They have separate catchments but as we will see the Somerset is the dominant partner.

XL North Pine Annual Rainfall 1961 to 2006.jpg (369107 bytes)The North Pine Dam is completely separate to the other dams. (SEQWater verbal advice). It experiences similar rainfall patterns. A reading of the "water grid" indicates that the proposed Traveston dam will feed into the North Pine dam.

Because it is separate, it is excluded from these observations. The Dam levels quoted contain all three Dams. The North Pine Dam however mirrored the Somerset Dam. It is also much smaller than the Wivenhoe and Somerset and therefore has little influence on all calculations in this web-site. The statistics compared to the total of the three Dams are : Capacity 12.2 % : Yield 10.9 % : Catchment area 4.7 %. Annual Rainfall is listed by SEQWater as : Wivenhoe 940mm : Somerset 1230mm : North Pine 1175mm.