AN OBSERVATION OF THE CONFLUENCE OF STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS, DAM RATIOS, TIMING AND UNCOMMON RAINFALL EVENTS THAT COMBINED TO PRESENT OUR DAMS AS VICTIMS OF A SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT THE CASE. THEIR INFLUENCE ON CONCLUSIONS REACHED AND ACTIONS TAKEN.

Author : J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant
August 2006 to April 2008

  UPDATES : November 2008. This website is maintained as it was in April 2008. Currently the Dam levels are around 40% and, with the addition of the Grid, should be maintained around that percentage. The next "uncommon meteorological event" will fill the Dams to overflow. This event will show that that the actions of "uncommon events", being Monsoons, Cyclones or Large Rainfall Depressions that generally cover all of SEQ, is again misunderstood and that they are the major source of our water supply. Our current storage capacity is insufficient to deal with them. The historical fundamental flaw of the cancellation of the Wolfdene Dam (1989) is being repeated in reverse at Traveston Crossing in the Mary Valley. See "Home" page for further updates.

The basis of this web site is Bureau of Meteorology rainfall Stations in the catchments and the Web-site of SEQWater, the Dam managers. Their Annual Reports reveal that they are a truly professional body. Their public announcements have been helpful and they are to be commended.

This is an example of the data provided by the Bureau. It is obtained through identification of the Rainfall Station numbers and then by request to the data section. A small fee is required. You will observe that the information is in EXCEL spread sheet format which gives easy access to assessing the required information. More information is contained in the "Find B.O.M." button.

The Bureau of Meteorology measures rainfall against the 30 year average (or mean)  1961 to 1990. To maintain statistical purity, I have used all the rainfall stations that have been in continuous operation from 1961 to 2006. The remaining stations were mostly closed prior to 2006 but have been inspected for possible aberrations.

These charts were initially used to confirm the rainfall maps. The Qld. Govt. Climate Change Centre for  excellence has since confirmed the overall percentage as 76.2%. The relationship of the Somerset and Wivenhoe dams is one of the central ingredients of this examination. The Somerset is on the Stanley river and the Wivenhoe on the Brisbane River at the junction of the Brisbane and Stanley Rivers. It backs up to the foot of the Somerset.

They have separate catchments but as we will see the Somerset is the dominant partner.

The North Pine Dam is completely separate to the other dams. (SEQWater verbal advice). It experiences similar rainfall patterns. A reading of the "water grid" indicates that the proposed Traveston dam will feed into the North Pine dam.