Wolfdene Dam
AN OBSERVATION OF THE CONFLUENCE OF STATISTICAL ABERRATIONS, DAM RATIOS, TIMING AND UNCOMMON RAINFALL EVENTS THAT COMBINED TO PRESENT OUR DAMS AS VICTIMS OF A SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT THE CASE. THEIR INFLUENCE ON CONCLUSIONS REACHED AND ACTIONS TAKEN.

Author : J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant
August 2006 to April 2008

  UPDATES : November 2008. This website is maintained as it was in April 2008. Currently the Dam levels are around 40% and, with the addition of the Grid, should be maintained around that percentage. The next "uncommon meteorological event" will fill the Dams to overflow. This event will show that that the actions of "uncommon events", being Monsoons, Cyclones or Large Rainfall Depressions that generally cover all of SEQ, is again misunderstood and that they are the major source of our water supply. Our current storage capacity is insufficient to deal with them. The historical fundamental flaw of the cancellation of the Wolfdene Dam (1989) is being repeated in reverse at Traveston Crossing in the Mary Valley. See "Home" page for further updates.

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This section is designed to draw attention to the decision making process of our Leaders on the entering into and emergence from a rare period of "uncommon events" in the life of the Wivenhoe Dam. In my view they are quite similar, one being made in a time of "plenty" and the other when the "plenty" was withdrawn.

Once the myth of the "worst drought in 100 years " is dealt with and uncommon events are understood, the decision to cancel the Wolfdene Dam comes into stark perspective.

The Dam was cancelled in early 1990 shortly after a change of Government in December 1989. The Wivenhoe dam had been in operation for four years. 

Wivenhoe was clearly a storage and flood mitigation dam for the Wivenhoe Sum 1911 06.jpg (170052 bytes) Somerset and was positioned below the Somerset on the Stanley and Brisbane Rivers junction. The chart outlining the Summer Rains for the last 96 years supports this contention. In its own right it provides little to our water supply except for infrequent "uncommon events". The Somerset has a much more efficient catchment although much smaller in capacity and catchment area. Nevertheless, with higher rainfall, it provides most of our water supply. Reference the "Wivenhoe Dam" button .

The Water Engineers and Hydrologists were obviously aware of this. The Courier Mail has made mention of a Key advisor on water being a world class Engineer and Hydrologist involved in research and recommendations for all of the State's major Dams including the Wivenhoe and Wolfdene dams. 

The Government had purchased all of the land required for the Wolfdene dam. In dispute were a few blocks on the thirty year mark. Reference is direct contact with the Dam Manager at that time though our common interest in school activities. He and his Chairman were removed shortly after the New Government took over.

I understand the Wolfdene Dam was to be a major Dam in the category of the Wivenhoe as described in the pages of the Courier Mail. It was to be located just south of Brisbane.

Wolfdene dam drips.jpg (272794 bytes) The Gold Coast Bulletin leaves one in no doubt as to their position on the cancellation of the Dam, the reasons why and who they believe is responsible. The Bulletin appeared unaware that the people mentioned went to the 1989 election on the basis of cancellation of the Wolfdene Dam and supported by the Liberal Party.

The Gold Coast Bulletin has arrived at a conclusion that they lost control of their water asset, the Hinze Dam, because of the lack of planning of the people mentioned. The Bulletin appeared unaware of uncommon events in the same way that our current leaders are. The past decision makers mentioned on their front page appear to have overlooked, or have been completely unaware of the implications of the natural occurrence of uncommon events of 1988 and 1989 referred to later in this section.

To add further balance to this subject, SEQWater operations manager drew our attention to four uncommon events Summer Rain Courier Mail 10 02 7.jpg (371046 bytes) occurring in the years 1986 to 2001. 1986 was the start of the Wivenhoe and the inflows of 1992 and 1999 were readily identified by him. See the last three paragraphs.

In  1988 in the single month of April, a non-summer month, a high Rainfall of 440mm occurred. Being a non-summer month is rare in itself. It was followed by a similar event in April of 1989 of 564mm. These events were sufficiently large to fill the dams. At that early stage the Dams were full and overflowing.

The last of these two events were seven months before the election.

In retrospect, this very high level may have been sufficient to draw incorrect conclusions against the advice of the Engineers and Hydrologists. This advice must necessarily have been present when the land purchase was proceeding.

This was followed up by the large inflows of 1992, 1996 and 1999 which filled the dams and buried the view of heavy and steady population growth's requirements and the implications of the cancellation of the Wolfdene dam.

Conclusion

The Wolfdene Dam cancellation is central to - entering into and emergence from a rare period of "uncommon events"

We have seen that the cancellation of the Wolfdene dam has denied us the provision of water except on a restricted basis. The decision relates to the entering this rare period of 5 uncommon events in 12 years.

We are now seeing that as we emerge from this period, our current leaders attribute it to a "drought" with all the decisions being made on this basis.

The solution lies in the harnessing of the surpluses from these uncommon events. This web-site provides the solution.