May 2009
: Addition to this section
This section is left as it was almost 2 years ago. It was
inserted to detect any observable change in rainfall in our dam catchments to
support claim that our depleted dams were the subject of climate change. There
was only one minor change detected in over a century but no conclusive proof.
What has come under pressure in the intervening period is my
statement that "the world exploding population was contributing to climate
change".
No argument exists that disputes Climate change being global
warming and cooling over the life of of our planet. The World's central body has
presented as fact a consensus of Scientists and non scientists that carbon
dioxide created by our population is an additional cause of climate
change.
Australia's own Professor Plimer, a noted geologist, disputes
this as a consensus is not fact. He further points out that the carbon dioxide,
an odorless and invisible gas, represented in our atmosphere is only .001% of
the carbon dioxide contained in the planet. It is contained mainly in water of
the oceans. The volume in the atmosphere is being constantly increased and decreased by natural process.
Carbon dioxide is apparently essential to all plant life on this planet which
also effects the volume.
The .001% by volume is the mathematical equivalent of less than 1/2 a day's water
supply compared to the volume of all waters in all the dams in South East
Queensland if they were full.
He has created considerable debate and insists that debate in
Australia has never started. In that respect he is joined by the Australian
newspaper and in Queensland some respected and balanced radio commentators. My understanding of science and scientists is that they research and
research always with an open mind. The fact that there is a debate at all
indicates the lack of factual evidence.
So now I am not so sure. The straightforward equation
of measurement that I put forward in the "conclusion" below is now obsolete. With many variables
being added such as the constant natural absorption and replenishment of carbon
dioxide and in particular the extremely small proportion of the Earth's carbon dioxide
being held in our atmosphere, the necessary mathematical equations to prove the
point have grown considerably.
For example:
If we do something then the measurement is against the increase in the Earth
warming:
If we do something and the Earth cools:
If we do something and the Earth still warms uncontrollably.
If we do nothing and the Earth cools
If we do nothing and the Earth warms to a tolerable degree
If we do nothing, how do we measure it against the the result of doing
something.
Etc;etc;etc;etc.
And so on it goes. The least we can do is ensure that the
Scientists agree on the facts. This reduces the creation of so many equations in
order to view and make clear decisions on the way forward and the eventual
assessment of it.
One thing that visitors to
this site may have observed is that 
three of the persons involved in the
decision to cancel the Wolfdene Dam are the chief promoters of the current legislation
to limit carbon dioxide production by humans. The Wolfdene dam cancellation decision
in South East Queensland is an acknowledged
error that eventually caused pain to the citizens of South East Queensland.
It took 15 years (1989 to 2005) to observe the effect of this
acknowledged error. Observation of the Control and effect of carbon dioxide on
our climate and living standards may take considerably longer. Most Australian
and International players will be off the stage by then.
Additions December 2009/ January 2010
While South Australia and Victoria were receiving "catastrophic"
warnings under their new system, the Northern Hemisphere
was experiencing its most severe winter since 1963.
The severity of the Victorian and South Australian heat and
bush fires since 1851 are recorded below in Nature's
time table.
A few personal photographs serve as a reminder of the extreme
conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.
Photo 1 : London , Thames and the "eye wheel"
with snow in the foreground.
Photo 2 : London, Barnes, a suburb of London, with the community
pond frozen over.
******************************************
Climate change in this website as of August
2007
Climate change has been introduced by the then new Chairman of
SEQWater in her 2006 annual report. The Queensland Government has formed the "Queensland
Climate
Change Centre Of Excellence". Our Political Leaders of all persuasions
have embraced Climate Change in varying degrees. It is therefore appropriate to examine the
rainfall in the catchments in relation to this subject.
Rainfall
You are aware from other sections of this site that I have all
the rainfall data in the catchments that has ever been produced. It predates
1893 in some cases. I am therefore in a strong position to examine the rainfall
over any periods to detect Climate Change.
Thirty year periods are selected as the Bureau of Meteorology
compares all rainfall with the 30 year period 1961 to 1990. I agree that
it is a sufficient period to detect trends.
These two graphs of the Wivenhoe
and Somerset Dams do not
show any effects of Climate Change on Rainfall in the last 30 year
period 1977 to 2006.
The Wivenhoe shows a variation in the 1947 to 1976 period
which included the 1974 flood. It is a period when it was reported by that respected
United States Journal "Newsweek" that
the Scientists of this world were predicting devastation of the Planet by Global
Cooling in 50 years.
The Somerset Dam, our main provider of water, shows no
variation in absolute terms in the last 60 years.
Summer versus non-summer
There is one aspect of this area for which I am unable to
provide an explanation.
While reviewing the percentage of rainfall received by the 
four months December to March, as compared to the eight months April to November,
I noticed that there was a 4 per cent variation between the years prior to 1961
and the years 1961 to 2006. The chart used is reproduced for convenience.
While this aberration is significant to warrant attention in
this section, it has no effect on the conclusion that the Summer months receive
50 percent, or more, of the annual Rainfall.
You will see that the individual Rainfall stations in both
Dams record a similar result to the total for each Dam. Whatever happened, it is
consistent. There is sufficient rainfall in each total to make the comparison
with comfort.
Federation drought
This matter has been raised by the Qld Govt, Climate Change
Centre of Excellence. Because it was raised, I have discussed it in full under the "Federation"
button.
It is referred to in this section for the reason of its
complete departure from normal rainfall patterns.
You will read in the "Summer V Non-Summer"
above that the items of interest are the stable relationship of the Summer months 1893 to
1960. The Summer months were around 53% of the annual totals and this was
consistent with all rainfall stations in both the Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams.
The
Federation years 1898 to 1903 show a complete reversal of this position. It
was accompanied by low readings of high impact rainfall throughout the period.
The Summer months in the dams were : 35 percent in the Wivenhoe and 34 percent
in the Somerset. The balance, of course is in the non-summer months.
The Climate Change Centre of Excellence has compared the
Federation drought with the last 6 years. One finds in this web-site that the
Summer months have been perfectly normal and that the balance of rain not
received was in the low rainfall non-summer months that do not normally create
inflow. Reference " Rainfall deficiency" button.
Drought applicable to Australia
This map provided by our Leaders shows the sections of 
Australia
that were in drought in February of 2007. They have been largely affected by
recent rains. Bear
in mind that while the catchments are shown as the lowest on record, the
percentage map showed 80 percent
The position of our catchments has been generally overshadowed
by this drought and the accurate position clouded.
This article "The big dry natural and not due to 
Climate Change" was provided by the CSIRO and published in the
Australian Newspaper on the 28th December 2006.
Brisbane city flood heights 1840 to 2006
This graph of Brisbane City flood heights covers the span of
seven generations. They do not fully represent the 
rainfall
in the catchments and vice versa. However there is much similarity. Obviously
the flood activity in the eighteen hundreds was much more intense than the
twentieth century and beyond. To the casual observer this would indicate that
climate change as we know it existed at the start of the twentieth
century and continued for seventy years. It
is more likely to be a natural occurrence of Climate change somewhat similar to
the last ice age of less than 400 generations ago. It covered Alaska, Canada,
the Great Lakes and half way down the United States. The evidence is presented
in a museum in the Ohio Valley which I once visited.
Support of the Brisbane City Flood heights with the
Computer Hydrology model supplied by the Qld Government.
This aspect is fully discussed in Qld
Gov Reports and reads as follows:-
Natural climate change observed in the
computer model
The HYNF graph is useful in observing the
natural climate change over the period 1880 to 2006. When considered with the
Bureau of Meteorology flood graph for the period 1840 to 1890, a clearer
perspective of natural climate change emerges.
The period from 1840 to 1900 would have seen
the dams full for almost, if not all, of the time. It was a "Wet"
period. The period 1900 to 1950 showed major gaps and was a "Dry"
period. 1950 to date shows a "medium" period.
Climate change created by an exploding World population
and its need for energy as its circumstances improve.
This aspect is emerging from theory into hard observable
statistics. The near future will be the conclusive proof of the degree of recognition
required.
Attached is a recent article (23/04/08) in the Australian
Newspaper by Mr Phil Chapman, a Geophysicist and Astronautical Engineer. He is
Australia's only astronaut.
He points out that the World temperatures in the last decade
have held or declined. This seems to be confirmed by the proponents of global
warming.
Further, the four recognized global agencies in his attached article,
including NASA, record an alarming drop of 0.7C in 2007. He proceeds to
speculate on the consequences of a global cooling of that magnitude with no apparent
intervention.
We now have one firm part of the two part equation, a reliable
fix on global temperatures. I am not aware of the carbon dioxide global
measurement at this
point.
Nature's time table
I have lived long enough to observe that we do not live long
enough to match the moods of Nature. Below are three newspaper articles that
bear out this statement.
They relate to the bushfires in Victoria which
are know throughout the World by recent 2009 events. Approximately 1,900 homes
were destroyed and approximately 185 people were killed.
1851 Black Thursday : bushfires rage across
Victoria.
Mighty sheets of fire fanned by fierce northerly winds, have raced through much
of the forests and pasture of Victoria today, leaving behind blackened ruins,
death and devastation.
The fires, which had been burning on many fronts earlier, rose
up on this day of 117 degree heat ( 47.2C) to devour everything in their path.
1939 Black Friday - bushfires raze Victoria.
The death toll is still rising as the worst fires in Victoria's history rage
through the state.....
The confirmed death toll is 71 and scores of people are still
missing.
1983 72 perish in Ash Wednesday fires (Victoria)
Seventy-two people died in the bushfires which swept through Victoria and
South Australia today, fuelled by 40 degree heat and searing gale force
winds....
.....with more than 2,000 homes destroyed and several
townships wiped out.......
2009 With approximately 185 dead and around 1900
homes destroyed, we are all aware of this recent event. It was World news for
some time.
It was the same situation with extreme heat and searing winds.
With only 27 lifetimes since the birth of Christ, most of us
believe that it a very long time but in Nature's time scale it is just a few
weeks.
The "Pied Piper of Hamlin" appears to be well and
truly alive in this day and age in the guise of Climate Change gurus.
Photos : 1851, 1939 and 1983 articles on Victorian
bushfires
Conclusion
We have seen from the above that the Rainfall itself has not
altered. That the Summer months receive 50 per cent or more of the annual
rainfall still holds. That the CSIRO states that there is no influence by
Climate Change. There does appear to be a permanent shift in the pattern
of Summer months versus non-summer months to the extent of 4 per cent of total
rainfall over the last 46 years.
In the realms of conjecture, the people who insist that land
clearing affects the rainfall may well be right with the high volume summer
months being reduced marginally since 1960. This follows a documented theory of
Mr. Tim Smith of the Gold Coast and is the only suggestion on which I can draw at
this stage.
The Federation drought, on closer examination by the Climate
Change Centre of Excellence, may reveal more about changing weather patterns
than will the last 6 years of rainfall.
From the foregoing, we see that there are two types of
climate change.
(1) Natural climate change and
(2) Climate change created by an exploding World population
and its need for energy as its circumstances improve.
Climate Change created by the latter is emerging from its ephemeral nature
and into the realm of hard statistics. The foregoing are hard statistics and
provide little relief for those who may claim Climate change of this nature is the cause of
our depleted dams.
The fact remains that we must provide for both. You will
see that that the creation of an expanded Borumba Dam to 2 million ML provides
for both whereas the Traveston, with minimal storage capacity, provides for
neither.
Note : Traveston dam project has been cancelled
February 2007. Output from the
Government IQQM computer model, covering the 111 years 1890 to 2000, has proven Mr Drury correct. In essence 300mm of
rain in the catchments in a few days is a flood and, in the right circumstances,
can fill the dams from scratch. On the other hand 3 months of 100mm a month is a
comparative
trickle. These facts can be buried in official overall rainfall statistics the
use of which in dam performance can and did throw up statistical aberrations.
records from 1841 reveal that
they occur on average every 3.7 years with most below that average. Therefore
those above can extend well above that average such as the recent period of 2001
to 2007.
