Calculation of shortfall of our normal requirements without
water restrictions
This calculation is relatively straight forward.
The Dam levels shown in SEQWater Annual Reports at 30th June
each year are listed and show a shortfall of 
68.1
% to 30th June 2006.
The Capacity of the Wivenhoe and Somerset are known and over a
period of 6 years with 365 days per year the shortfall is 480ML per day.
After adjustments for water restrictions in 2006 and minor
rainfall adjustments, the "business as usual" requirement from these
two Dams is 522ML per day.
Rainfall provided 481ML per day to make up the
overall requirement of 1003ML per day. This is calculated in
"Requirements" button.
Water Grid
The title of these projects is listed on the Water
Commission's web-site as " Water Supply Emergency Projects" together
with the date of the updated assessment.
The projects are subject to change and you should review the
web-site for updated
information. The web address is qwc.qld.gov.au/Water.
As a starting point I have attached my assessment of new water
as at April 2007. It shows a new water total of 372ML per day. This
assessment includes recycled water and excludes the water being redirected from
current Dams and Weirs and in particular the Southern Regional water pipeline.
Shortfall to achieve normal status
The above requirements show a shortfall of 522ML per day. The
water grid at present summaries as 372ML per day. The balance not met is
150ML per day.
The delayed projects are now dealt with.
Wyaralong Dam
The Depart of Natural Resources fact sheet of March 2006 is
examined. I understand that since this issue the Dam size had been reduced with
the water pumped when available into the grid system. As it is the same water,
the fact sheet is useful.
The sheet advises that it would be prudent to have the Dam
completed as early as 2015 with commencement around 2010.
The areas to be supplied are the Beaudesert Shire, Logan City
and the Gold Coast. The Gold Coast may not be in this study.
The Dam capacity when full was to be 104,000ML. The inflow
into a Dam of that size would be around one third which gives it a provision of
94ML per day. However, the Noosa Shire Council submission to the Senate Committee
suggests 14,000ML or 38ML per day. This would apply from year 2015 unless otherwise revised. The fact
sheet is missing this essential fact.
Proposed Traveston Dam
The Traveston Dam on the water grid appears to service
the
North Pine area. This area has been excluded from our requirements
calculation as I am dealing with the Wivenhoe/Somerset Dams system.
You will see that over extended periods of many years, the
Wivenhoe will be basically empty. We have seen that in the current period where,
with normal summer rains and no uncommon events, the Wivenhoe/Somerset system
has been drained. The proximity of the Mary Valley catchment to the head waters
of both the Brisbane and Stanley rivers is an item of considerable interest
from the point of view of harnessing surplus waters from uncommon events.
This catchment and the proposed dam is dealt with in the
"Mary Valley" and "Traveston" buttons
Minor projects
There are a number of minor projects that will alleviate some
of the problem. In so doing some create hardship in the areas concerned. Of
special interest to me is increased output from Stradbroke Island. It will
require close monitoring to ensure that the ecological balance is not disturbed.
I understand this has been reconsidered.
The Lord Mayor of Brisbane has recognized that the rainwater
tanks had to be linked into the systems to be effective in requirement
reduction.
Recycled water
It is obvious from the above that the absence of
"purified" recycled water would leave the Water Grid totally
inadequate. A very successful PR campaign was mounted and the public convinced
to a point where the vote was cancelled.
What is of interest is the comments on rainfall that
accompanied the press release on "no vote". It is dealt with in "Rain
2001-2006" button which includes the actual monthly rainfall of both
Dams and you can judge the accuracy of those comments.
CONCLUSION
In essence, the new water in the "Grid" excluding
the proposed Traveston Dam will make up the shortfall between normal
Summer rainfall and our requirements. There is no provision for increased requirements
of our population growth until the Mary Valley question is settled. It will be
either the Traveston Dam proposal or the expanded Borumba Dam to harvest the
surpluses from uncommon events. At this point our Leaders have no regard for the
Borumba proposal and their PR machine is working overtime on the Traveston site.
Both of these proposals are considered elsewhere in
this web-site.
There will be no reserves to counteract real droughts until
Uncommon events again occur at some time in the future and are successfully
managed.
